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2017最受歡迎ted演講 ...最受歡迎的演講的10個TED演講,第一個居然是……(附視頻&演講稿)

時間:2019-01-06 來源:作文筆 

原標題:TED官方清單:2017年最受歡迎的演講的10個TED演講,第一個居然是……(附視頻 演講稿)

TED創始人 Chris Anderson曾經說過“曾經,知識經濟中的人說,你要保護如黃金般的知識,這是你唯一的價值。但是,當全球都聯系在一起時,游戲規則改變了,每個人都互相關聯,一切都會快速發展。當知識傳播出去后,會以最快速度到達全球各地,得到反饋,得以傳播,而它的潛在價值是無形的?!?/p>

近日,TED出了一份官方清單,認定這12個演講是2017年最受歡迎的演講,而第一個居然是在年初爆出大新聞的Elon Musk的TED演講 專訪視頻。

由于微信公眾號視頻數量發布的限制,英語演講軍今天主要分享排名前三的視頻,其余的請大家自行點擊鏈接打開觀看。

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作為2017年度排名第一的最受歡迎TED演講,Elon Musk和TED創始人Chris Anderson在2017年4月28日的對話中討論了Elon在洛杉磯地下修建隧道的新計劃、最新款的特斯拉、SpaceX回收火箭、未來移民火星、做事的動機等精彩內容。這是一個信息量很大的采訪,我們摘取了他提到的26個信息點給大家。

TED專訪Elon Musk對話雙語稿

精彩英語演講整理

Chris Anderson: Elon, hey, welcome back to TED. It"s great to have you here.

Elon Musk: Thanks for having me.

CA: So, in the next half hour or so, we"re going to spend some time exploring your vision for what an exciting future might look like, which I guess makes the first question a little ironic: Why are you boring?

EM: Yeah. I ask myself that frequently. We"re trying to dig a hole under LA, and this is to create the beginning of what will hopefully be a 3D network of tunnels to alleviate congestion. So right now, one of the most soul-destroying things is traffic. It affects people in every part of the world. It takes away so much of your life. It"s horrible. It"s particularly horrible in LA.

CA: I think you"ve brought with you the first visualization that"s been shown of this. Can I show this?

EM: Yeah, absolutely. So this is the first time -- Just to show what we"re talking about. So a couple of key things that are important in having a 3D tunnel network. First of all, you have to be able to integrate the entrance and exit of the tunnel seamlessly into the fabric of the city. So by having an elevator, sort of a car skate, that"s on an elevator, you can integrate the entrance and exits to the tunnel network just by using two parking spaces. And then the car gets on a skate. There"s no speed limit here, so we"re designing this to be able to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.

CA: How much?

EM: 200 kilometers an hour, or about 130 miles per hour. So you should be able to get from, say, Westwood to LAX in six minutes -- five, six minutes.

CA: So possibly, initially done, it"s like on a sort of toll road-type basis.

EM: Yeah.

CA: Which, I guess, alleviates some traffic from the surface streets as well.

EM: So, I don"t know if people noticed it in the video, but there"s no real limit to how many levels of tunnel you can have. You can go much further deep than you can go up. The deepest mines are much deeper than the tallest buildings are tall, so you can alleviate any arbitrary level of urban congestion with a 3D tunnel network. This is a very important point. So a key rebuttal to the tunnels is that if you add one layer of tunnels, that will simply alleviate congestion, it will get used up, and then you"ll be back where you started, back with congestion. But you can go to any arbitrary number of tunnels, any number of levels.

CA: But people -- seen traditionally, it"s incredibly expensive to dig, and that would block this idea.

EM: Yeah. Well, they"re right. To give you an example, the LA subway extension, which is -- I think it"s a two-and-a-half mile extension that was just completed for two billion dollars. So it"s roughly a billion dollars a mile to do the subway extension in LA. And this is not the highest utility subway in the world. So yeah, it"s quite difficult to dig tunnels normally. I think we need to have at least a tenfold improvement in the cost per mile of tunneling.

CA: And how could you achieve that?

EM: Actually, if you just do two things, you can get to approximately an order of magnitude improvement, and I think you can go beyond that. So the first thing to do is to cut the tunnel diameter by a factor of two or more. So a single road lane tunnel according to regulations has to be 26 feet, maybe 28 feet in diameter to allow for crashes and emergency vehicles and sufficient ventilation for combustion engine cars. But if you shrink that diameter to what we"re attempting, which is 12 feet, which is plenty to get an electric skate through, you drop the diameter by a factor of two and the cross-sectional area by a factor of four, and the tunneling cost scales with the cross-sectional area.So that"s roughly a half-order of magnitude improvement right there. Then tunneling machines currently tunnel for half the time, then they stop, and then the rest of the time is putting in reinforcements for the tunnel wall. So if you design the machine instead to do continuous tunneling and reinforcing, that will give you a factor of two improvement. Combine that and that"s a factor of eight. Also these machines are far from being at their power or thermal limits, so you can jack up the power to the machine substantially. I think you can get at least a factor of two,maybe a factor of four or five improvement on top of that. So I think there"s a fairly straightforward series of steps to get somewhere in excess of an order of magnitude improvement in the cost per mile, and our target actually is --we"ve got a pet snail called Gary, this is from Gary the snail from "South Park," I mean, sorry, "SpongeBob SquarePants."

So Gary is capable of -- currently he"s capable of going 14 times faster than a tunnel-boring machine.

CA: You want to beat Gary.

EM: We want to beat Gary.

He"s not a patient little fellow, and that will be victory. Victory is beating the snail.

CA: But a lot of people imagining, dreaming about future cities, they imagine that actually the solution is flying cars, drones, etc. You go aboveground. Why isn"t that a better solution? You save all that tunneling cost.

EM: Right. I"m in favor of flying things. Obviously, I do rockets, so I like things that fly. This is not some inherent bias against flying things, but there is a challenge with flying cars in that they"ll be quite noisy, the wind force generated will be very high. Let"s just say that if something"s flying over your head, a whole bunch of flying cars going all over the place, that is not an anxiety-reducing situation.

You don"t think to yourself, "Well, I feel better about today." You"re thinking, "Did they service their hubcap, or is it going to come off and guillotine me?" Things like that.

CA: So you"ve got this vision of future cities with these rich, 3D networks of tunnels underneath. Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop? Could you apply these tunnels to use for this Hyperloop idea you released a few years ago.

EM: Yeah, so we"ve been sort of puttering around with the Hyperloop stuff for a while. We built a Hyperloop test track adjacent to SpaceX, just for a student competition, to encourage innovative ideas in transport. And it actually ends up being the biggest vacuum chamber in the world after the Large Hadron Collider, by volume. So it was quite fun to do that, but it was kind of a hobby thing, and then we think we might -- so we"ve built a little pusher car to push the student pods, but we"re going to try seeing how fast we can make the pusher go if it"s not pushing something. So we"re cautiously optimistic we"ll be able to be faster than the world"s fastest bullet train even in a .8-mile stretch.

CA: Whoa. Good brakes.

EM: Yeah, I mean, it"s -- yeah. It"s either going to smash into tiny pieces or go quite fast.

CA: But you can picture, then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel running quite long distances.

EM: Exactly. And looking at tunneling technology, it turns out that in order to make a tunnel, you have to -- In order to seal against the water table, you"ve got to typically design a tunnel wall to be good to about five or six atmospheres.So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere, or near-vacuum. So actually, it sort of turns out that automatically, if you build a tunnel that is good enough to resist the water table, it is automatically capable of holding vacuum.

CA: Huh.

EM: So, yeah.

CA: And so you could actually picture, what kind of length tunnel is in Elon"s future to running Hyperloop?

EM: I think there"s no real length limit. You could dig as much as you want. I think if you were to do something like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop, I think you"d probably want to go underground the entire way because it"s a high-density area. You"re going under a lot of buildings and houses, and if you go deep enough, you cannot detect the tunnel.Sometimes people think, well, it"s going to be pretty annoying to have a tunnel dug under my house. Like, if that tunnel is dug more than about three or four tunnel diameters beneath your house, you will not be able to detect it being dug at all. In fact, if you"re able to detect the tunnel being dug, whatever device you are using, you can get a lot of money for that device from the Israeli military, who is trying to detect tunnels from Hamas, and from the US Customs and Border patrol that try and detect drug tunnels. So the reality is that earth is incredibly good at absorbing vibrations, and once the tunnel depth is below a certain level, it is undetectable. Maybe if you have a very sensitive seismic instrument, you might be able to detect it.

CA: So you"ve started a new company to do this called The Boring Company. Very nice. Very funny.

EM: What"s funny about that?

CA: How much of your time is this?

EM: It"s maybe ... two or three percent.

CA: You"ve bought a hobby. This is what an Elon Musk hobby looks like.

EM: I mean, it really is, like -- This is basically interns and people doing it part time. We bought some second-hand machinery. It"s kind of puttering along, but it"s making good progress, so --

CA: So an even bigger part of your time is being spent on electrifying cars and transport through Tesla. Is one of the motivations for the tunneling project the realization that actually, in a world where cars are electric and where they"re self-driving, there may end up being more cars on the roads on any given hour than there are now?

EM: Yeah, exactly. A lot of people think that when you make cars autonomous, they"ll be able to go faster and that will alleviate congestion. And to some degree that will be true, but once you have shared autonomy where it"s much cheaper to go by car and you can go point to point, the affordability of going in a car will be better than that of a bus.Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket. So the amount of driving that will occur will be much greater with shared autonomy, and actually traffic will get far worse.

CA: You started Tesla with the goal of persuading the world that electrification was the future of cars, and a few years ago, people were laughing at you. Now, not so much.

EM: OK.

I don"t know. I don"t know.

CA: But isn"t it true that pretty much every auto manufacturer has announced serious electrification plans for the short- to medium-term future?

EM: Yeah. Yeah. I think almost every automaker has some electric vehicle program. They vary in seriousness. Some are very serious about transitioning entirely to electric, and some are just dabbling in it. And some, amazingly, are still pursuing fuel cells, but I think that won"t last much longer.

CA: But isn"t there a sense, though, Elon, where you can now just declare victory and say, you know, "We did it." Let the world electrify, and you go on and focus on other stuff?

EM: Yeah. I intend to stay with Tesla as far into the future as I can imagine, and there are a lot of exciting things that we have coming. Obviously the Model 3 is coming soon. We"ll be unveiling the Tesla Semi truck.

CA: OK, we"re going to come to this. So Model 3, it"s supposed to be coming in July-ish.

EM: Yeah, it"s looking quite good for starting production in July.

CA: Wow. One of the things that people are so excited about is the fact that it"s got autopilot. And you put out this video a while back showing what that technology would look like.

EM: Yeah.

CA: There"s obviously autopilot in Model S right now. What are we seeing here?

EM: Yeah, so this is using only cameras and GPS. So there"s no LIDAR or radar being used here. This is just using passive optical, which is essentially what a person uses. The whole road system is meant to be navigated with passive optical, or cameras, and so once you solve cameras or vision, then autonomy is solved. If you don"t solve vision, it"s not solved. So that"s why our focus is so heavily on having a vision neural net that"s very effective for road conditions.

CA: Right. Many other people are going the LIDAR route. You want cameras plus radar is most of it.

EM: You can absolutely be superhuman with just cameras. Like, you can probably do it ten times better than humans would, just cameras.

CA: So the new cars being sold right now have eight cameras in them. They can"t yet do what that showed. When will they be able to?

EM: I think we"re still on track for being able to go cross-country from LA to New York by the end of the year, fully autonomous.

CA: OK, so by the end of the year, you"re saying, someone"s going to sit in a Tesla without touching the steering wheel, tap in "New York," off it goes.

EM: Yeah.

CA: Won"t ever have to touch the wheel -- by the end of 2017.

EM: Yeah. Essentially, November or December of this year, we should be able to go all the way from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any point during the entire journey.

CA: Amazing. But part of that is possible because you"ve already got a fleet of Teslas driving all these roads. You"re accumulating a huge amount of data of that national road system.

EM: Yes, but the thing that will be interesting is that I"m actually fairly confident it will be able to do that route even if you change the route dynamically. So, it"s fairly easy -- If you say I"m going to be really good at one specific route, that"s one thing, but it should be able to go, really be very good, certainly once you enter a highway, to go anywhere on the highway system in a given country. So it"s not sort of limited to LA to New York. We could change it and make it Seattle-Florida, that day, in real time. So you were going from LA to New York. Now go from LA to Toronto.

CA: So leaving aside regulation for a second, in terms of the technology alone, the time when someone will be able to buy one of your cars and literally just take the hands off the wheel and go to sleep and wake up and find that they"ve arrived, how far away is that, to do that safely?

EM: I think that"s about two years. So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work say 99.9 percent of the time,because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times, then you"re probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep. You shouldn"t be, certainly.

It"s never going to be perfect. No system is going to be perfect, but if you say it"s perhaps -- the car is unlikely to crash in a hundred lifetimes, or a thousand lifetimes, then people are like, OK, wow, if I were to live a thousand lives,I would still most likely never experience a crash, then that"s probably OK.

CA: To sleep. I guess the big concern of yours is that people may actually get seduced too early to think that this is safe, and that you"ll have some horrible incident happen that puts things back.

EM: Well, I think that the autonomy system is likely to at least mitigate the crash, except in rare circumstances. The thing to appreciate about vehicle safety is this is probabilistic. I mean, there"s some chance that any time a human driver gets in a car, that they will have an accident that is their fault. It"s never zero. So really the key threshold for autonomy is how much better does autonomy need to be than a person before you can rely on it?

CA: But once you get literally safe hands-off driving, the power to disrupt the whole industry seems massive,because at that point you"ve spoken of people being able to buy a car, drops you off at work, and then you let it goand provide a sort of Uber-like service to other people, earn you money, maybe even cover the cost of your lease of that car, so you can kind of get a car for free. Is that really likely?

EM: Yeah. Absolutely this is what will happen. So there will be a shared autonomy fleet where you buy your car and you can choose to use that car exclusively, you could choose to have it be used only by friends and family, only by other drivers who are rated five star, you can choose to share it sometimes but not other times. That"s 100 percent what will occur. It"s just a question of when.

CA: Wow. So you mentioned the Semi and I think you"re planning to announce this in September, but I"m curious whether there"s anything you could show us today?

EM: I will show you a teaser shot of the truck.

It"s alive.

CA: OK.

EM: That"s definitely a case where we want to be cautious about the autonomy features. Yeah.

CA: We can"t see that much of it, but it doesn"t look like just a little friendly neighborhood truck. It looks kind of badass. What sort of semi is this?

EM: So this is a heavy duty, long-range semitruck. So it"s the highest weight capability and with long range. So essentially it"s meant to alleviate the heavy-duty trucking loads. And this is something which people do not today think is possible. They think the truck doesn"t have enough power or it doesn"t have enough range, and then with the Tesla Semi we want to show that no, an electric truck actually can out-torque any diesel semi. And if you had a tug-of-war competition, the Tesla Semi will tug the diesel semi uphill.

CA: That"s pretty cool. And short term, these aren"t driverless. These are going to be trucks that truck drivers want to drive.

EM: Yes. So what will be really fun about this is you have a flat torque RPM curve with an electric motor, whereas with a diesel motor or any kind of internal combustion engine car, you"ve got a torque RPM curve that looks like a hill.So this will be a very spry truck. You can drive this around like a sports car. There"s no gears. It"s, like, single speed.

CA: There"s a great movie to be made here somewhere. I don"t know what it is and I don"t know that it ends well, but it"s a great movie.

EM: It"s quite bizarre test-driving. When I was driving the test prototype for the first truck. It"s really weird, because you"re driving around and you"re just so nimble, and you"re in this giant truck.

CA: Wait, you"ve already driven a prototype?

EM: Yeah, I drove it around the parking lot, and I was like, this is crazy.

CA: Wow. This is no vaporware.

EM: It"s just like, driving this giant truck and making these mad maneuvers.

CA: This is cool. OK, from a really badass picture to a kind of less badass picture. This is just a cute house from "Desperate Housewives" or something. What on earth is going on here?

EM: Well, this illustrates the picture of the future that I think is how things will evolve. You"ve got an electric car in the driveway. If you look in between the electric car and the house, there are actually three Powerwalls stacked up against the side of the house, and then that house roof is a solar roof. So that"s an actual solar glass roof.

CA: OK.

EM: That"s a picture of a real -- well, admittedly, it"s a real fake house. That"s a real fake house.

CA: So these roof tiles, some of them have in them basically solar power, the ability to --

EM: Yeah. Solar glass tiles where you can adjust the texture and the color to a very fine-grained level, and then there"s sort of microlouvers in the glass, such that when you"re looking at the roof from street level or close to street level, all the tiles look the same whether there is a solar cell behind it or not. So you have an even color from the ground level. If you were to look at it from a helicopter, you would be actually able to look through and see that some of the glass tiles have a solar cell behind them and some do not. You can"t tell from street level.

CA: You put them in the ones that are likely to see a lot of sun, and that makes these roofs super affordable, right?They"re not that much more expensive than just tiling the roof.

EM: Yeah. We"re very confident that the cost of the roof plus the cost of electricity -- A solar glass roof will be less than the cost of a normal roof plus the cost of electricity. So in other words, this will be economically a no-brainer, we think it will look great, and it will last -- We thought about having the warranty be infinity, but then people thought, well, that might sound like were just talking rubbish, but actually this is toughened glass. Well after the house has collapsed and there"s nothing there, the glass tiles will still be there.

CA: I mean, this is cool. So you"re rolling this out in a couple week"s time, I think, with four different roofing types.

EM: Yeah, we"re starting off with two, two initially, and the second two will be introduced early next year.

CA: And what"s the scale of ambition here? How many houses do you believe could end up having this type of roofing?

EM: I think eventually almost all houses will have a solar roof. The thing is to consider the time scale here to be probably on the order of 40 or 50 years. So on average, a roof is replaced every 20 to 25 years. But you don"t start replacing all roofs immediately. But eventually, if you say were to fast-forward to say 15 years from now, it will be unusual to have a roof that does not have solar.

CA: Is there a mental model thing that people don"t get here that because of the shift in the cost, the economics of solar power, most houses actually have enough sunlight on their roof pretty much to power all of their needs. If you could capture the power, it could pretty much power all their needs. You could go off-grid, kind of.

EM: It depends on where you are and what the house size is relative to the roof area, but it"s a fair statement to saythat most houses in the US have enough roof area to power all the needs of the house.

CA: So the key to the economics of the cars, the Semi, of these houses is the falling price of lithium-ion batteries,which you"ve made a huge bet on as Tesla. In many ways, that"s almost the core competency. And you"ve decidedthat to really, like, own that competency, you just have to build the world"s largest manufacturing plant to double the world"s supply of lithium-ion batteries, with this guy. What is this?

EM: Yeah, so that"s the Gigafactory, progress so far on the Gigafactory. Eventually, you can sort of roughly see that there"s sort of a diamond shape overall, and when it"s fully done, it"ll look like a giant diamond, or that"s the idea behind it, and it"s aligned on true north. It"s a small detail.

CA: And capable of producing, eventually, like a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries a year.

EM: A hundred gigawatt hours. We think probably more, but yeah.

CA: And they"re actually being produced right now.

EM: They"re in production already. CA: You guys put out this video. I mean, is that speeded up?

EM: That"s the slowed down version.

CA: How fast does it actually go?

EM: Well, when it"s running at full speed, you can"t actually see the cells without a strobe light. It"s just blur.

CA: One of your core ideas, Elon, about what makes an exciting future is a future where we no longer feel guilty about energy. Help us picture this. How many Gigafactories, if you like, does it take to get us there?

EM: It"s about a hundred, roughly. It"s not 10, it"s not a thousand. Most likely a hundred.

CA: See, I find this amazing. You can picture what it would take to move the world off this vast fossil fuel thing. It"s like you"re building one, it costs five billion dollars, or whatever, five to 10 billion dollars. Like, it"s kind of cool that you can picture that project. And you"re planning to do, at Tesla -- announce another two this year.

EM: I think we"ll announce locations for somewhere between two and four Gigafactories later this year. Yeah, probably four.

CA: Whoa.

(Applause) No more teasing from you for here? Like -- where, continent? You can say no.

EM: We need to address a global market.

CA: OK.

This is cool. I think we should talk for -- Actually, double mark it. I"m going to ask you one question about politics, only one. I"m kind of sick of politics, but I do want to ask you this. You"re on a body now giving advice to a guy --

EM: Who?

CA: Who has said he doesn"t really believe in climate change, and there"s a lot of people out there who think you shouldn"t be doing that. They"d like you to walk away from that. What would you say to them?

EM: Well, I think that first of all, I"m just on two advisory councils where the format consists of going around the roomand asking people"s opinion on things, and so there"s like a meeting every month or two. That"s the sum total of my contribution. But I think to the degree that there are people in the room who are arguing in favor of doing something about climate change, or social issues, I"ve used the meetings I"ve had thus far to argue in favor of immigration and in favor of climate change.

And if I hadn"t done that, that wasn"t on the agenda before. So maybe nothing will happen, but at least the words were said.

CA: OK.

So let"s talk SpaceX and Mars. Last time you were here, you spoke about what seemed like a kind of incredibly ambitious dream to develop rockets that were actually reusable. And you"ve only gone and done it.

EM: Finally. It took a long time.

CA: Talk us through this. What are we looking at here?

EM: So this is one of our rocket boosters coming back from very high and fast in space. So just delivered the upper stage at high velocity. I think this might have been at sort of Mach 7 or so, delivery of the upper stage.

CA: So that was a sped-up --

EM: That was the slowed down version.

CA: I thought that was the sped-up version. But I mean, that"s amazing, and several of these failed before you finally figured out how to do it, but now you"ve done this, what, five or six times?

EM: We"re at eight or nine.

CA: And for the first time, you"ve actually reflown one of the rockets that landed.

EM: Yeah, so we landed the rocket booster and then prepped it for flight again and flew it again, so it"s the first reflight of an orbital booster where that reflight is relevant. So it"s important to appreciate that reusability is only relevant if it is rapid and complete. So like an aircraft or a car, the reusability is rapid and complete. You do not send your aircraft to Boeing in-between flights.

CA: Right. So this is allowing you to dream of this really ambitious idea of sending many, many, many people to Marsin, what, 10 or 20 years time, I guess.

EM: Yeah.

CA: And you"ve designed this outrageous rocket to do it. Help us understand the scale of this thing.

EM: Well, visually you can see that"s a person. Yeah, and that"s the vehicle.

CA: So if that was a skyscraper, that"s like, did I read that, a 40-story skyscraper?

EM: Probably a little more, yeah. The thrust level of this is really -- This configuration is about four times the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.

CA: Four times the thrust of the biggest rocket humanity ever created before.

EM: Yeah. Yeah.

CA: As one does. EM: Yeah.

In units of 747, a 747 is only about a quarter of a million pounds of thrust, so for every 10 million pounds of thrust,there"s 40 747s. So this would be the thrust equivalent of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.

CA: And so even with a machine designed to escape Earth"s gravity, I think you told me last time this thing could actually take a fully loaded 747, people, cargo, everything, into orbit.

EM: Exactly. This can take a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel, maximum passengers, maximum cargo on the 747 -- this can take it as cargo.

CA: So based on this, you presented recently this Interplanetary Transport System which is visualized this way. This is a scene you picture in, what, 30 years time? 20 years time? People walking into this rocket.

EM: I"m hopeful it"s sort of an eight- to 10-year time frame. Aspirationally, that"s our target. Our internal targets are more aggressive, but I think --

CA: OK.

EM: While vehicle seems quite large and is large by comparison with other rockets, I think the future spacecraft will make this look like a rowboat. The future spaceships will be truly enormous.

CA: Why, Elon? Why do we need to build a city on Mars with a million people on it in your lifetime, which I think is kind of what you"ve said you"d love to do?

EM: I think it"s important to have a future that is inspiring and appealing. I just think there have to be reasons that you get up in the morning and you want to live. Like, why do you want to live? What"s the point? What inspires you? What do you love about the future? And if we"re not out there, if the future does not include being out there among the stars and being a multiplanet species, I find that it"s incredibly depressing if that"s not the future that we"re going to have.

CA: People want to position this as an either or, that there are so many desperate things happening on the planet now from climate to poverty to, you know, you pick your issue. And this feels like a distraction. You shouldn"t be thinking about this. You should be solving what"s here and now. And to be fair, you"ve done a fair old bit to actually do that with your work on sustainable energy. But why not just do that?

EM: I think there"s -- I look at the future from the standpoint of probabilities. It"s like a branching stream of probabilities, and there are actions that we can take that affect those probabilities or that accelerate one thing or slow down another thing. I may introduce something new to the probability stream. Sustainable energy will happen no matter what. If there was no Tesla, if Tesla never existed, it would have to happen out of necessity. It"s tautological. If you don"t have sustainable energy, it means you have unsustainable energy. Eventually you will run out, and the laws of economics will drive civilization towards sustainable energy, inevitably. The fundamental value of a company like Tesla is the degree to which it accelerates the advent of sustainable energy, faster than it would otherwise occur.

So when I think, like, what is the fundamental good of a company like Tesla, I would say, hopefully, if it accelerated that by a decade, potentially more than a decade, that would be quite a good thing to occur. That"s what I consider to be the fundamental aspirational good of Tesla.

Then there"s becoming a multiplanet species and space-faring civilization. This is not inevitable. It"s very important to appreciate this is not inevitable. The sustainable energy future I think is largely inevitable, but being a space-faring civilization is definitely not inevitable. If you look at the progress in space, in 1969 you were able to send somebody to the moon. 1969. Then we had the Space Shuttle. The Space Shuttle could only take people to low Earth orbit. Then the Space Shuttle retired, and the United States could take no one to orbit. So that"s the trend. The trend is like down to nothing. People are mistaken when they think that technology just automatically improves. It does not automatically improve. It only improves if a lot of people work very hard to make it better, and actually it will, I think, by itself degrade, actually. You look at great civilizations like Ancient Egypt, and they were able to make the pyramids,and they forgot how to do that. And then the Romans, they built these incredible aqueducts. They forgot how to do it.

CA: Elon, it almost seems, listening to you and looking at the different things you"ve done, that you"ve got this unique double motivation on everything that I find so interesting. One is this desire to work for humanity"s long-term good.The other is the desire to do something exciting. And often it feels like you feel like you need the one to drive the other. With Tesla, you want to have sustainable energy, so you made these super sexy, exciting cars to do it. Solar energy, we need to get there, so we need to make these beautiful roofs. We haven"t even spoken about your newest thing, which we don"t have time to do, but you want to save humanity from bad AI, and so you"re going to create this really cool brain-machine interface to give us all infinite memory and telepathy and so forth. And on Mars, it feels like what you"re saying is, yeah, we need to save humanity and have a backup plan, but also we need to inspire humanity, and this is a way to inspire.

EM: I think the value of beauty and inspiration is very much underrated, no question. But I want to be clear. I"m not trying to be anyone"s savior. That is not the -- I"m just trying to think about the future and not be sad.

CA: Beautiful statement. I think everyone here would agree that it is not -- None of this is going to happen inevitably.The fact that in your mind, you dream this stuff, you dream stuff that no one else would dare dream, or no one else would be capable of dreaming at the level of complexity that you do. The fact that you do that, Elon Musk, is a really remarkable thing. Thank you for helping us all to dream a bit bigger.

EM: But you"ll tell me if it ever starts getting genuinely insane, right?

CA: Thank you, Elon Musk. That was really, really fantastic. That was really fantastic.

Chris Anderson (CA): 伊隆,歡迎回到TED來。很高興你能來。

Elon Musk (EM): 感謝邀請。

1 你為什么無聊?Why are you boring?

CA:嗯,在接下來的半個小時,我們會花點時間來探索一下你所構想的激動人心的未來,這可能會讓我的第一個問題聽起來有點諷刺:為什么你覺得無聊?

EM:是呀。我經常這么問自己。我們打算挖一條隧道穿過洛杉磯,這是我們計劃的開始我們有希望打造一個地下三維管道來緩解交通阻塞。目前來看,最讓人精神疲憊的事情之一就是堵車。這影響世界上每個角落的人。它從你生命中拿走了太多時間。太可怕了。在洛杉磯尤其可怕。(笑聲)

CA:我想你帶來了這項工程演示視頻的首次公開展示。我能播放么?

EM:可以,當然可以。這是第一次——就展示下我們正在聊的。有幾個關鍵的點對于構建3D隧道特別重要。首先,你必須能夠整合隧道的入口和出口無縫的整合到城市交通里。通過利用電梯,一個給汽車用的滑板,滑板放在電梯里,我們就可以將隧道的入口和出口跟公路對接起來代價僅僅是兩個停車位的面積。然后汽車就在滑板上,隧道里沒有限速,所以我們設計時速是每小時200公里。

CA:多少?EM:每小時200公里,也就是每小時130英里。所以打個比方,如果你從Westwood到洛杉磯機場只需要五到六分鐘。(掌聲)

CA:所以有可能,完工之后,有點類似收費高速路的模式。

EM:對的。

CA:我猜這將也會緩解地面交通的壓力。

EM:嗯,我不知道大家是否注意到視頻中的一個細節,實際上我們可以繼續增加隧道的層數。往下挖比往上開拓要容易得多。實際上最深的礦井比最高的摩天大樓要長多了,所以我們可以利用這種立體隧道網解決任意級別的交通擁堵問題。這是個非常重要的點。所以這種隧道的一個爭論點是如果我們加了一層隧道,那么可以輕微緩解交通擁堵,但是很快擁堵又起來了,這個時候大家又回到原點,又開始擁堵。但是現在我們可以增加任意數量的隧道,沒有層數限制。

CA:但是人們——傳統上看到的是,隧道挖起來特別燒錢,這回導致這個想法擱淺。

EM:對的。嗯,他們是對的。我來舉一個例子,洛杉磯地鐵線擴建,大概——我想大概是擴建了2.5英里那么長工程花費達到了20億美元。所以在洛杉磯地區建立隧道成本大概10億一英里。而且這還不是世界上最昂貴的通勤地鐵線路。所以是的,通常情況下挖隧道很難。我想我們必須能夠至少將隧道的建設成本降低十倍以上才行。

CA:那么你怎么做到呢?

EM:實際上,如果你做兩件事情,就已經可以得到接近一個數量級的改進,而且我覺得可以做到更多。第一件事是減少隧道的直徑縮減到正常的二分之一。法律規定一條隧的寬度至少26英尺,可能是28英尺來避免車輛剮蹭到隧道,允許救護車通過同時為內燃機車的發動機留足充分的通風機制。但是如果你將直徑縮減到我們目前嘗試的那樣,只有12英尺,這個寬度已經足夠一個汽車滑板通過,這樣你就將直徑減少了兩倍這樣縱切面就減少了四倍,而隧道建設成本跟隧道的縱切面積有直接關系。所以這一條就縮減了大概半個數量級的成本。目前我們在挖隧道的流程是,挖掘機挖一段時間就停下來,等著隧道的阻隔墻加固完成,再繼續。所以如果你能夠重新設計機器,能夠同步進行挖掘和加固,那么能得到兩倍的改進。加起來就是8倍的改進了。而且這些機器還遠遠沒有達到熱力學定律的極限,所以你可以加大機器的馬力。我覺得至少能夠再提高一倍?;蛟S能夠在之前的基礎上再提高四五倍。所以我覺得現在已經有了比較明確的步驟在縮減單位長度成本上能夠做到一個數量級的改進,而我們的目標實際上是——我們做了一個玩具蝸牛叫Gary,名字來自《南方公園》,我是說,抱歉,來自《海綿寶寶》。(笑聲)現在Gary能夠做到——現在它能夠做到比現在慢吞吞的隧道機器快14倍以上。(笑聲)

CA:你希望超過Gary。

EM:“我們”想要超過Gary。(笑聲)他不是一個安靜的小隨從,會迎來勝利的。勝利就是打敗這個蝸牛。

2 為什么飛行汽車不是一個更好的解決方案?Why aren’t flying cars a better solution?

CA:但是很多人夢想著,在構想未來城市的時候,他們想的實際上是飛行汽車,無人機,等等。人們在地面上活動。為什么那不是更好的方法?這樣就完全沒有挖隧道的開銷了。

EM:對。我很喜歡會飛的東西。很顯然的,我研究火箭,我喜歡會飛的東西。雖然我沒有任何對于飛行物的偏見,但是飛行汽車這個概念有個問題就是一定會很吵,產生的風也會非常大。就簡單想象一下如果有什么東西飛過你的頭頂,很多飛行汽車從你頭上穿過,這可不是能讓你減少焦慮的場面。(笑聲)你肯定不會想,“嗯,我今天感覺不錯?!蹦銜?,“這些車輪胎都擰緊了么”“會不會掉下來砸爛我的頭?”類似這樣。

3 這些隧道將如何與超級回路相結合?How will these tunnels tie in with Hyperloop?

CA:所以你對未來的構想就是城市地下布滿這樣的立體交通隧道。這跟Hyperloop有關聯么?你是不是可以將隧道用在幾年前你公開出來的Hyperloop的想法上。

EM:對,我們在Hyperloop這件事情上已經游手好閑了一段時間。我們在SpaceX旁邊建立了一個Hyperloop實驗軌道用來做學生競賽用,用來激勵在交通上的創新想法。實際上,我們最后做出來了世界上最大的真空管道僅次于LHC對撞機,從規模上說。這件事情特別有意思,不過只算是業余愛好,后來我們想或許——所以我們建造了一個推進器來推進學生做的膠囊倉,而我們打算試試看推進器如果沒有載重自己能夠推進多快。我們謹慎樂觀的認為我們將會比目前世界上最快的子彈頭列車更快即使在0.8英里的長度上。

CA:哇,剎車不錯嘛。

EM:對,我是說,它——對。它沒有直接撞成碎片,但是速度已經非??炝?。

CA:但是你已經可以構想以后,Hyperloop在隧道里,做長距離運輸。

EM:千真萬確??纯船F在的隧道構造技術,事實上為了挖一條隧道,你必須——為了能夠隔絕地下水滲透,你通常需要將隧道壁設計足夠硬能夠承受五到六個大氣壓。而真空狀態只需要承受一個大氣壓,或者近似真空。所以實際上,基本上是自然而然地,如果你構造一條隧道足夠承受地下水的壓力,保持真空就變成自然而然的事情。

CA:呃。

EM:所以,對。

CA:所以你實際上可以構想,在你構想的未來里,Hyperloop隧道可以長到什么規模?

EM:我覺得沒有任何長度的限制。你可以想要挖多遠就挖多遠。我覺得如果你想要造Hyperloop,比如從華盛頓到紐約,我覺得你可能更愿意全程都從地下穿過因為地面建筑太密集了。你會從地下穿過很多大樓和房屋,如果你挖的足夠深,在地表是探測不到隧道的。有時候人們會想,嗯,那可夠惱人的如果在我房子下面挖隧道的話比如,如果一條隧道是在你家地下三到四個隧道直徑的深度挖的話,你就根本探測不出來了。實際上如果你能夠探測到,不管你用什么設備,你都可以用這個設備從以色列軍方那里賺到一大筆錢,他們一直在嘗試探測哈馬斯組織挖的隧道,美國海關和邊防也都希望探測毒販的隧道。所以實際上,地球吸收震動的能力非常的好,一旦隧道建設達到一定深度,就無法探測到了?;蛟S你拿一個非常靈敏的地震探測儀,可以有機會探測到。

CA:所以你開了一家新公司做這個公司叫“無聊的公司”。非常棒,挺會玩。(笑聲)

EM:有什么好笑的?(笑聲)

CA:這個大概花費你多少時間?

EM:大概有……百分之二三的樣子。

CA:你帶來了一個業余愛好。這就是Elon Musk的業余愛好的樣子。(笑聲)

EM:我是說,實際上是——基本上是實習生和一些兼職職工在做。我們買了一些二手設備。這個一開始也差不多是隨便玩玩,但是沒想到進度喜人,所以——

4 特斯拉發生了什么事?What’s happening at Tesla?

CA:所以你的時間中大部分投入到了電動汽車,也就是特斯拉上。隧道項目的動機中有沒有服務于特斯拉的成分,未來世界中汽車都是電動,都是自動駕駛的,最終可能是路面上有更多汽車比現在的任何時刻都要多?

EM:對,完全正確。很多人認為當汽車開始自動駕駛,他們能跑得更快,并緩解交通壓力。在某種程度上是真的,但是一旦我們開始共享汽車,叫個計程車就會很便宜于是你到哪兒都可以叫車,叫得起出租車要比等公交好得多。那時候,叫車估計比公交車還便宜。所以路面上汽車等到共享自動駕駛汽車的時候就會更多,那個時候交通會更擁擠。

CA:你創辦特斯拉的時候希望向世界證明電動汽車是汽車行業的未來,幾年前,人們還嘲笑你?,F在,沒有那么多人了。

EM:好。(笑聲)我不知道,我不知道。

CA:但是現在差不多每個汽車廠商都認真地宣布了短期或中期的電動汽車計劃?

EM:對,對。我想基本每一個汽車廠商都有電動車計劃了。但是對待的認真程度不同。有一些非常堅定,要全面電動化,有一些僅僅是試水看看。還有一些,挺有意思的還堅持化石燃料,但是我覺得他們長久不了了。

CA:但是Elon,現在不就已經是,你可以宣布勝利,說,“我們做到了?!弊屖澜缍奸_始轉向汽車電動化,你可以將重心轉入其它行業了?

EM:對。我打算在可以預見的未來繼續主導特斯拉的發展,也有很多激動人心的事情我們在做。很顯然,特斯拉Model 3就要發布了。我們也要宣布特斯拉半掛卡車。

CA:好的,我們就要聊到這個了。所以Model 3計劃時在七月左右發布。

EM:是,7月份發布新東西感覺很好。

CA:哇哦。人們非常興奮的一件事情是它將能夠自動駕駛。你在不久之前放出來這段視頻展示了這項技術看起來什么樣子。

EM:對的。

CA:現在Model S已經有了自動駕駛。這段視頻我們看出來什么?

EM:對的,這段視頻里只用了GPS和可見光攝像頭。注意這里并沒有使用激光雷達。這里僅僅是用了被動光學傳感器,跟我們人類使用的差不多。整個道路系統的導航僅僅使用被動光學,也就是攝像頭所以當你能夠(僅僅)用攝像頭或者視覺,那么自動駕駛的問題就解決了。如果你沒有解決視覺問題,問題就沒有解決。這也是為什么我們非常重視訓練視覺神經網絡,這東西在公路環境下很有效。

CA:對的。很多人都打算使用激光雷達模塊。你希望用攝像頭和雷達搞定。

EM:使用攝像頭就足夠讓你變成超人了。例如你可能比人類的反應快十倍以上,僅使用攝像頭。

CA:所以新款特斯拉上有八個攝像頭。它們還不能做剛才展示的那樣。什么時候可以?

EM:我想我們還在按預定計劃推進到今年年底的時候能夠完全自主的從洛杉磯開到紐約。

CA:OK,所以到了今年底,你是說人們只要坐進特斯拉不需要碰方向盤,輸入“紐約”,車就開起來了。

EM:對的。

CA:不再需要摸方向盤——2017年底。

EM:對,基本上,11月份或者12月份,我們應該能夠完全地從加州某個停車場,開到紐約的某個停車場,全程不需要碰方向盤。(掌聲)

CA:厲害了。但是這里成功的前提之一是因為你已經有了一個特斯拉車隊在路上到處行駛。你已經積累了海量的公路數據。

EM:但是這里好玩的事情是我實際上非常自信即使道路臨時改了,我們也能夠正常行駛到目的地。所以,相對來說容易的是——如果你說我在特定的道路上有很好的表現,這是一回事,當然這樣它能夠做到,但是更好的是,當你輸入一條高速路,能夠去一個國家的任何一條高速路。所以這并不是只能從洛杉磯到紐約。我們可以改成從西雅圖到弗羅里達,那天,實時地調整。所以你假設從洛杉磯到紐約?,F在從洛杉磯到多倫多。

CA:現在先不管監管的問題,僅僅考慮技術本身,大概什么時候,我們能夠買一輛你的車并且真的雙手離開方向盤睡一覺醒來之后就到了目的地,要能夠安全的實現這點還需要多久?

EM:我想大概兩年時間。這個問題的點不在于你能夠以99.9%的概率不出錯,因為,如果一輛汽車一千次出行會出一次車禍,那么你可能還是不會睡的舒服。你不會的,當然啦。(笑聲)這個永遠都不是完美的。沒有系統能做到完美,但是如果你說它可能——這輛車在一百個人那里在一千個人那里都不會出車禍那么人們可能會想,哇哦,如果我有一千條命,我還是基本上不會遇到車禍,那么可能就是OK的。

CA:關于睡覺。我猜測你的一大擔心是人們可能實際上過早的覺得這項技術是安全的,然后一些可怕的事故可能會發生,將人們的預期拉回來。

EM:嗯,實際上我覺得自動駕駛系統可能至少能夠減輕車禍,除非在極罕見的情況下。談及汽車安全需要注意的一點是車禍是有隨機性的。我是說,有這樣的可能性,人類駕駛員坐在車里,他們也有可能發生車禍,那是駕駛員的失誤。概率不可能是零。所以關鍵的一個門檻實際上是自動駕駛到底需要比人類駕駛員好多少時,你才會信任它?

CA:但是一旦這種真正意義上的無人駕駛開始實施,對于整個行業的沖擊是巨大的,因為在那時你可以跟買得起車的人說,自己坐車上班之后,讓車輛自己去,提供類似優步叫車的服務給其他人提供服務,車主賺錢,甚至可能足夠你支付買車的分期貸款,所以你可能不花錢就能買輛車。這有可能發生么?

EM:對的,這是絕對會發生的事情。所以將來會有一個自動共享車隊你買一輛車,你可以選擇自己獨享,你可以選擇跟家庭和朋友一起使用,或者給評分五顆星的司機,你可以在某些時間共享,某些事件獨占。這百分百會發生。只是時間問題。

CA:哇哦。你剛才提到了半掛卡車我想你可能9月份要發布,但是我很好奇,有沒有今天可以透露的?EM:我可以給你看一張海報風格的照片。(笑聲)這是真的。

CA:好吧。

EM:這絕對是我們希望關于自動駕駛特性,保持謹慎的一種情形。耶。(笑聲)

CA:我們看不到太多細節,但是這個看起來并不像是那種小巧友善的零家卡車??雌饋砗馨缘?。這是個什么類型的卡車?

EM:這是一個重型長途半掛卡車。它的載重是最大的并且用于長途。所以基本上這是用來減輕長途重型卡車的負載的。這是今天的人們覺得不太可能的事情。他們認為這個卡車沒有足夠動力,也跑不了那么遠,于是通過特斯拉半掛卡車,我們希望證明,一輛電動卡車實際上能夠驅動任何柴油動力卡車。而且如果我們來一場拔河比賽,特斯拉電動半掛能夠把柴油動力車拽上坡。(笑聲)(掌聲)

CA:這太酷了。簡單說,還不是無人駕駛。這些是需要卡車司機駕駛的卡車。

EM:是的。真正好玩的地方在于電動引擎的的轉矩扭力曲線是平坦的,而柴油動力或者任何內燃機車引擎,你看到的轉矩扭力曲線都是山峰狀的。所以這車動力澎湃。駕駛這車的就像駕駛運動型轎車。沒有齒輪。它就像是單一速度。

CA:有一部很不錯的電影在這里拍攝。我不知道這是什么,不知道結局如何,不過這是個好電影。(笑聲)

EM:試駕的感覺非常的奇怪。當我第一次駕駛這樣卡車的原型車時。真的很古怪,因為你開來開去你感覺非常靈活,你又是坐在這種大卡車里。

CA:等等,你已經開過了?

EM:對,我在一個停車場開了下,我當時感覺,太瘋狂了。

CA:哇哦,這不是幻想。

EM:就像這樣,駕駛這個龐然大物,機動性又讓人覺得瘋狂。

5 還有什么是電動的?What else is going electric?

CA:太酷了。好,從一張很霸道的圖片,到這張不那么霸道的照片。這是從《絕望的主婦》劇照里摳出來的房子。這到底要說明什么?

EM:嗯,這張圖片展示了未來,我覺得事情會如何演化。你在路上看到一輛電動汽車。如果你留心車和房屋之間,實際上在房屋的周圍有三面Powerwall,同時房屋的屋頂是太陽能屋頂。所以那實際上是一個太陽能玻璃屋頂。

CA:OK。

EM:這張圖片是真的——嗯,公認的,真的樣板房。這是個真的樣板房。(笑聲)

CA:所以這些屋頂的瓦片,其中有一些有能力進行太陽能發電——

EM:對的。太陽能玻璃瓦片你可以調整紋理和顏色,可以在很精細的粒度上調整,而且這些玻璃上有種類似百葉窗的微型結構,所以當你從街道那么遠的距離看這個屋頂或者靠近馬路的位置,所有的瓦片看起來都一樣了,無法區分里面是不是有太陽能板。所以從地面上看,你看到的是均勻的色彩。如果你坐在直升機上往下看,你就能穿透玻璃看到后面有一些玻璃后面有太陽能電池板,有一些沒有。從街道上無法看出來。

CA:你把它們放在陽光盡可能多照射到的地方,是的這些屋頂更容易負擔得起,對么?這相對于完全用太陽能電池板負載屋頂要經濟得多。

EM:對。我們很有自信,屋頂的成本加上電力節約的成本——一個太陽能玻璃屋頂的成本將會比一個普通屋頂加上電力成本來的低。所以換句話說,這將是在經濟上的必然選擇,我們覺得看起來很棒,而且它可以持續——我們有考慮過無限期質保,但是人們會想,嗯,這可能聽起來像是胡說八道,但是實際上這些都是鋼化玻璃。甚至房屋都倒塌了成了一片廢墟,這些玻璃瓦片還會完好無損的。(掌聲)

CA:我覺得這很酷。所以我想你可能會在幾周內開始推廣,共有四種不同的屋頂樣式。

EM:對,我們開始的時候推廣兩種,一開始有兩種,另外兩種會在明年初開始。

CA:那么在規模上你有多大的野心?你覺得大概有多少屋頂會被替換成這種屋頂?

EM:我覺得最終的話基本上所有的屋子都會有太陽能屋頂。問題是需要考慮大概需要多久我覺得大概是需要40到50年的樣子。所以一般而言,屋頂20-25年換一次。但是你不會一開始就替換所有的屋頂。但是最終,如果你快速地從現在推廣到15年之后,那時候沒有太陽能的屋頂將會是很少見的。

CA:這里會不會因為人們的思維模式還沒有到這個程度,并不是因為成本的變化,太陽能的經濟效應,大部分房屋的屋頂實際上有充足的光照,足夠提供他們所需的所有電能。如果你能夠利用這種能源,這基本上滿足了他們所有的需要。你可以某種程度上不需要電網了。

EM:這取決于你的位置以及屋頂面積和房屋面積的比例,但是一般而言可以說美國的大部分房屋有足夠大的屋頂產生足夠全家使用的電能。

CA:所以這項經濟活動的關鍵包括汽車、半掛卡車、這些房屋是鋰電池的價格需要足夠低,這是你在特斯拉上的豪賭。從很多方面講,這都算是核心能力。所以你決定為了能夠真正的擁有這項核心能力,你需要建造世界上最大的生產廠房將世界鋰電池供應量翻倍,用這個家伙。這是什么?

EM:對,這是超級工廠,超級工廠目前的進展。最終,你大概能夠看到一個類似鉆石形狀的輪廓,等到完全竣工,它會像一個巨型鉆石,這也是這個背后的點子,這指向正北方。這是個小細節。

CA:最終將有能力生產,每年生產幾百兆瓦時的電源。

EM:一百兆瓦時。我們覺得可能會更多一些,不過,是的。

CA:而且實際上他們已經投入生產了。

EM:他們已經在生產了。

CA:你的員工放了這段視頻。我想問,這是快進了么?

EM:這是慢速回放的版本。(笑聲)

CA:那么它實際上會有多快?

EM:嗯,當它全速運行的時候,不用頻閃燈你是看不到具體的電池的,是模糊的影子。(笑聲)

CA:你的一個核心觀念,伊隆,創在一個令人興奮的未來這個未來人們在使用能源上不用再有罪惡感。幫我們描繪一下。需要多少超級工廠,按你的設想,才能幫助我們達到目標?

EM:大概需要一百座,基本上。不是10座,不是1000座。最有可能是一百座。

CA:看,我覺得很神奇。你可以描繪出為了讓世界拋棄化石燃料需要的具體步驟。好像你建造這一座工廠,造價是五十億美元,或者可能是,五十億到一百億美元。你能描繪出那樣的場景相當的酷。而且你的特斯拉公司還計劃——今年再建設兩座超級工廠。

EM:我覺得我們會在今年晚些時候公開二到四座超級工廠的選址。對,可能是四座。

CA:哇。(掌聲)這里能透露更多信息么?例如——哪個大陸?你可以說不。

EM:我們需要考慮全球市場。

CA:好吧。(笑聲)酷。我想我們需要談論一下——實際上,加上雙引號。我接下來要問一個政治問題,就一個。我是厭惡政治的,但是我想問你這個問題。你現在加入了一個委員會為一個人提供建議——

EM:誰?

CA:一個自稱不相信全球變暖的人,并且有很多人覺得你不應該參與其中。他們希望你遠離這些。你如何回應他們?

EM:嗯,我想首先,我只是在兩個咨詢委員會里形式上大概就是聚在一間屋子里問人們關于一些議題的看法,大概一兩個月開一次會。這是我所有的貢獻。但是我想對在場的那些因為關心氣候變化而爭論的朋友,或是爭論社會議題的朋友,我利用我參與這些會議的機會為移民問題和氣候變化問題發聲。(掌聲)如果我沒有這么做,這些本來都不在議題上。所以可能什么都不會發生,但是該說的我都說了。

6 讓我們談談SpaceX項目。Let’s talk SpaceX.

CA:OK。(掌聲)讓我們聊聊SpaceX和火星。上一次你來這里,你講述了一個看起來充滿野心并且難以置信的夢想創造一種可以回收利用的火箭?,F在你終于做到了。

EM:終于。這花了很長時間。

CA:跟我們說說這個。我們現在看到了什么?

EM:這是我們的一個火箭推進器從很高的天空快速返回的視頻。它在火箭高速飛行的前期階段進行推動。我想這大概有7馬赫左右,運送上節火箭。(掌聲)

CA:所以這是個快速——

EM:這是個慢速回放版本。(笑聲)

CA:我以為這是個快進版本。但是我想說這太神奇了,而且前幾次都失敗了后來你終于發現了正確的方法,現在你們已經做了,五到六次?

EM:我們成功了八九次了。

CA:這是歷史上第一次,你回收和再利用了著陸之后的火箭。

EM:對,我們回收了火箭推進器并且重新注入燃料繼續使用,繼續回收,所以這是第一次太空軌道推進器的重復飛行,注意這里再次飛行是有意義的。這里很重要的一點需要支持就是可重用性只有在快速和完備的時候才是有意義的。就像是飛行器或者汽車,它們的重復使用是快速且完備的。你不會在兩次航空飛行之間把飛機送回波音公司。

7 火星呢?What about Mars?

CA:對。所以這讓你能夠實現那個野心勃勃的夢想把很多很多人送上火星在大概10年、20年之內,我猜。

EM:對。

CA:然后你設計了這樣大膽的火箭來實現這個目標。跟我們解釋一下這個事情的規模。

EM:好,你可以看到這里有一個人。對,那是火箭。(笑聲)

CA:所以如果那是個摩天大樓的話,那么大概,如果沒算錯,大概40層的摩天大樓?

EM:可能稍微更高一些,對。這個級別的推動力非常的——這個推動力大概是土星5型火箭的4倍。

CA:比人類創造的最大推進力的火箭多四倍的推進力。

EM:對,對。

CA:這個能做到。

EM:對呀。(笑聲)以波音747做比較,一架747的推動力大概是25萬磅的推動力,所以一千萬鎊的推動力,相當于40架747.所以這相當于120架747的推動力,如果引擎都打開的話。

CA:所以用這臺設計用來擺脫地心引力的機器,我想上次你告訴我說這東西能夠裝載一架滿載的747,人,貨物,所有東西,送入軌道。

EM:沒錯。這個可以裝載一架加滿油的747,747上乘客滿員、貨物滿員——可以整體當作貨物。

CA:所以基于這個你最近展示了這個星際傳送系統畫出來是這個樣子的。這個場景你描述的是30年后?20年后?人們走進這個火箭。

EM:我希望這是8到10年之后的場景。這是我們的雄心壯志。我們內部的目標更加的激進,不過我想——(笑聲)

CA:好吧。

EM:雖然航空器看起來非常大并且比其它火箭都要大,我想未來的宇宙飛船會讓這個看起來就像是小船一樣。未來的航天飛機將真的會很大。

8 但是,為什么要在地球上有這么多問題的情況下從事像到達火星這樣的項目呢?But why work on projects like getting to Mars when we have so many problems here on Earth?

CA:為什么,伊???為什么我們需要在火星上建造城市在你的有生之年移民一百萬人口,這是我理解的你想要做的事情?

EM:我覺得非常重要的是有一個激動人心和向往的未來。我就是覺得必須要有理由讓你每天早晨醒來的時候有活下去的興趣。像是,你為什么要活著?意義是什么?有什么東西鼓舞著你?未來你有什么期許?如果我們不能去火星,如果我們的未來不包括在多個行星上生活并且成為跨行星的物種,我發現這將會特別的令人失望,如果這個不是我們即將迎來的未來的話。(掌聲)

9 你的動機是什么?What’s your motivation?

CA:人們可能將這個事情放在次要位置,或者說這個星球上已經有那么多叫人絕望的事情,從氣候問題到貧困問題,而你,你挑了你關心的問題。這感覺像是有點偏離重點。你不應該思考這些。你應該解決當前和當下的問題。公平地講,你已經做了一些實質性的工作比如你在可再生能源上的貢獻。但是為什么不滿足于此呢?

EM:我覺得——我是從概率的角度看待未來的。未來就像是不斷在的分岔路上做選擇,有一些行為是我們可以做的會改變可能性或是加快一件事情,或是減慢一件事情。我可能在這個可能性的洪流中引入新的東西??稍偕茉匆欢〞l生。如果沒有特斯拉,特斯拉從未存在,它也會因為有存在的必要性而出現。這是贅述。如果你沒有可再生能源,意味著你有不可再生能源。最終能源會耗盡,經濟定律會引導我們的文明朝著可再生能源發展,不可避免的。像是特斯拉這樣的企業的根本價值在于一定程度上加速可再生能源的到來,會比沒有特斯拉的時候來得更快。所以當我想著,比如,像是特斯拉這樣的企業的核心價值,我會說,希望是,如果它能夠推動這個進程提前十年,可能超過十年,那么這將是非常好的事情。這是我所考慮的特斯拉公司最核心的雄心壯志。然后我想到了跨星球的物種和在宇宙中分型的文明。這并不是必然發生的。這件事情并不是必然發生,這非常重要??稍偕茉吹奈磥?,我覺得很大程度上是必然發生的。但是成為能夠在宇宙間飛行的文明顯然不是必然要發生的未來。如果你看下太空技術的進步,在1969年我們就可以把人送上月球。1969.后來我們有了航天飛機。航天飛機只能夠把人送入低軌。然后航天飛機退休了,然后美國就沒有辦法把人送入軌道了。所以這就是趨勢。這個趨勢是退化到什么都沒有。人們有時候會錯誤的理解覺得技術肯定是自動的提升的。技術并不會自動的改進。只有當很多人投入大量精力努力去改善的時候才有可能。我想實際上,技術本身是會退化的。你看看古埃及的偉大文明,他們當時建造了金字塔,他們現在忘記怎么建造的了。還有羅馬人,他們建造了難以置信的溝渠系統。他們也忘記怎么建造的了。

CA:伊隆,看起來,聽你說的話以及看著你做的這些不同的工作,你的每件事情都有這獨特的雙重動機,我發現這很有意思。一個動機是渴望做人類長遠福祉的事。另一個是做激動人心的事。而且看起來你經常會覺得需要用一個動機去主導另一個動機。對特斯拉你希望有可再生能源,所以你做出了這樣炫酷的轎車來達到這個目的。太陽能,我們需要實現它,所以我們需要這些漂亮的屋頂。我們還沒有談論到你最新的東西,我們的時間有限,但是你希望避免壞的AI毀滅人性,所以你想要創建一個真的很酷的人腦跟機器的接口給我們無限的記憶和心靈感應等等。關于火星,感覺你說的是,對,我們需要拯救人類,需要有一個備份方案,但是同時我們也需要激發人性,這是激勵我們的方式。

EM:我認為美和激勵人心的價值被大大的低估了,毫無疑問。但是我想要澄清一點。我不想成為誰的救世主。那不是——我只是想要想象未來希望不要失望。(掌聲)

CA:完美的說辭。我想每個人都會同意那不是——沒有任何一件事情是確定會發生的。你腦海中的這些事實,你夢想的東西,你夢想的東西沒有人敢這么做夢,或者沒有其他人能夠將夢想達到你這個能力和級別的復雜程度。事實上你做的事情,伊隆·馬斯克,真的都很了不起。感謝你讓我們的夢想都變大了一點。

EM:但是當我開始變得有些瘋狂的時候,你們會提醒我的,對吧?(笑聲)

CA:謝謝你,伊隆·馬斯克。這真的非常、非常的棒。真的非常棒。(掌聲)

采訪中提到的26點

“在接下來的半個小時左右的時間里,我們將花費一些時間探索你的愿景,看看一個令人興奮的未來”,安德森說,“我猜這會讓我的第一個問題聽上去有點諷刺。你為什么無聊?”

這是安德森提出的第一個問題。無聊是指馬斯克的新項目Boring。

1、 隧道項目(The Boring Company)將在加州洛杉磯開挖

2、 電動傳輸帶運行時速200公里每小時

3. 項目只是馬斯克的興趣,占他平時2-3%的時間。

4. 這個項目的最大問題是挖隧道成本太高。

5、 最終目的是建成一個3D通道網絡,緩解道路地面擁堵。

6、隧道建成后收費通行。

7、馬斯克認為飛行汽車還不成熟。

8、 特斯拉研發自動駕駛,專注做好攝像頭的圖像分析。

9.2017年年底,特斯拉自動駕駛車就能從洛杉磯開到紐約,中間人類不用做任何干預。

10. 但即使到那時候,自動駕駛的安全性依然是個問題。

11. 以及,自動駕駛并不能改善交通擁堵狀況

12. 特斯拉未來會提供Uber那樣的共享服務

13. 特斯拉電動卡車Semi,是一輛重型、長程電動卡車

14. 特斯拉的目標是讓它的動力超過任何汽油卡車,它現在的動力強到可以把汽油卡車拖上坡

15. Semi原型車已經造出來了,馬斯克在公司停車試駕過,說駕駛感很輕快,開著不像一輛重型卡車。

16. 平價版四門轎車Model 3 2017年7月投產。

17. 目前,大多數北美獨棟別墅和聯排別墅的屋頂有足夠的面積放置太陽能瓦片來為整幢房子供電。

18. 做太陽能生意的SolarCity,打算給房子造新屋頂。

19. SolarCity已經做了兩套屋頂原型產品,已經出來一個原型了,第二個2018年年初問世。

20. 一般美國別墅屋頂的瓦片每20-25年換一次,馬斯克估算新型太陽能屋頂普及大概要40-50年。

21. 超級工廠Gigafactory一年生產100兆瓦時的電池。

22. 如果全球轉向清潔能源,大概需要100間超級工廠。

23. 今年晚些時候,馬斯克將宣布4處超級工廠選址,不會只在美國。

24. SpaceX新火箭的推力,比人類目前推理最大的火箭土星V大四倍。

25. 新火箭高度超過40層樓高(按一樓4.2米計算,大約168米)。

26. 這枚火箭計劃未來8-10年造出,公司內部的時間目標會更近。

2

Anjan Chatterjee用進化心理學和認知神經科學來研究自然界最吸引人的概念之一:美。

那么大腦是如何判斷美丑的呢,為什么將線條、顏色、形式做某些配置之后就能感動到我們?讓我們一起來看看這次精彩的演講吧!

根據馬洛斯的需求層次分析,“美”應該是屬于人類比較靠上的需求層次。生存和安全等基本要求被滿足后,才會涉及到較為抽象的“美”。但其實根據研究表明,對美的鑒別和欣賞,是如同吃喝和性欲一樣的人類本能。即使你的大腦在進行別種任務的時候(例如判斷兩張不同的照片是否為同一個人),大腦仍會自動的判斷對象是否“美”。從這個意義上說,每個人都是“外貌協會”成員。

3

Megan Phelps-Roper生長在一個可以被稱之為“邪教”的組織,Westboro Baptist Church。從5歲起就跟著父母和長輩,舉著她讀不懂的抗議牌,參加游行示威。當她試圖通過網絡宣傳“教義”時,卻慢慢對從小接受的觀念產生了懷疑,進而與其決裂。

作為沒有什么信仰的人,固然是無法完全理解宗教。但無論什么信仰,總應以善和愛為本,而非仇恨。

4

沙魯克汗:關于人性、名聲和愛

https://www.ted.com/talks/shah_rukh_khan_thoughts_on_humanity_fame_and_love

5

ANIL SETH:大腦如何塑造你認知的現實?

https://www.ted.com/talks/anil_seth_how_your_brain_hallucinates_your_conscious_reality

6

EMILY ESFAHANI SMITH:快樂不是人生的全部

https://www.ted.com/talks/emily_esfahani_smith_there_s_more_to_life_than_being_happy

7

JOSEPH REDMON:電腦如何實時識別物體?

https://www.ted.com/talks/joseph_redmon_how_a_computer_learns_to_recognize_objects_instantly

8

ADAM GRANT:你是“貢獻者”還是“索取者”?

https://www.ted.com/talks/adam_grant_are_you_a_giver_or_a_taker

9

GIULIA ENDERS:人體腸道神奇的運作

https://www.ted.com/talks/giulia_enders_the_surprisingly_charming_science_of_our_gut

10

ADAM ALTER:盯著屏幕一整天,可能是你生活不開心的原因

https://www.ted.com/talks/adam_alter_why_our_screens_make_us_less_happy

你也可以乘坐電梯觀看全部:

https://www.ted.com/playlists/608/most_popular_ted_talks_of_2017返回搜狐,查看更多

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